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Projected row crop proportions under climate change used in developing wetland density projections

The impact of climate change on land conversion was assessed by projecting the land-use model under GCM hindcast and forecast climatic conditions.

For each GCM, we projected future row crop proportions under 40 years of average hindcast conditions (i.e., assuming historical climate prevails into the future), and under 20 year of average hindcast conditions followed by 20 years of average forecast conditions. We used twenty years of forecast conditions to avoid assuming that climate changes projected for mid-century would have occurred immediately. The 20-20 assumption approximates a linear transition from the historic to future climate and is not limiting since the probabilities will converge given sufficient years under a given climate regime. Projected climate change impacts differed in direction and spatial pattern between GCMs (Fig. S3). Projected changes in the proportion of the landscape planted in row crops were generally small (mean change = 0.01), but included increases of over 0.25 of the landscape and declines of over 0.3 of the landscape (Fig. S3). Conversion probabilities responded to precipitation as expected, with an increase in precipitation associated with higher probabilities that grass converts to crops and lower probabilities that crops convert to grass.

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